SYENSQO (+) : Q1 ahead with good mix. Lowered risk of another cons downgrade

Research evidence excerpt

SYENSQO (+) : Q1 ahead with good mix. Lowered risk of another cons downgrade

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

SYENSQO OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR58.8  TARGET PRICE EUR70 (UPSIDE 19%)

FLASH NOTE

Q1 ahead with good mix. Lowered risk of another cons downgrade

15 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 06:46* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Laurent Favre, CFA BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8518 laurent.g.favre@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

• Q1 EBITDA came in at €251m, down 19% y/y, but 5% above company compiled consensus of €239m (BBG

slightly above at €242m). Divisionally, both divisions were ahead on EBITDA, with Aroma/other line missing.

• FCF was flat y/y, with a decline in capex offsetting the decline in OpCF.

• FY26 guidance is unchanged with EBITDA still expected at approx. €1.1bn (unchanged EUR-USD

assumption of 1.20), in line with consensus (€1,085m for company compiled, BBG at €1,101m). OpCF

guidance unchanged at €0.7bn, but capex assumption lowered by €50m to €450m (including ERP-related

spending of €25m vs €50m previously), ie FCF guidance raised.

• For Q2, they mentioned improving order book momentum, which given the improvement during Q1, makes us

think that consensus is in the right ballpark.

BNPP View: the road to rebuilding a track record starts today

Syensqo spooked the market back in February with a very weak FY26 and a Q1 guidance that implied an aggressive

sequential recovery. This morning’s print should be reassuring and help with the market’s perception of the new CEO.

The beat in the Materials division stands out as driven by Specialty Polymers, the source of many disappointments over

the last 18 months but today showing nice incremental margins on slight volumes improvement.