TATA MOTORS PV (=) : Recovery on track, global demand headwinds a risk

Research evidence excerpt

TATA MOTORS PV (=) : Recovery on track, global demand headwinds a risk

EQUITIES

AUTOMOTIVE

TATA MOTORS PV NEUTRALPRICE* INR338.8  TARGET PRICE INR350 (UPSIDE 3%)

Recovery on track, global demand headwinds a risk

Our biggest positive margin surprise candidate for 4QFY26 was TMPV and the company beat our15 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report above consensus margin estimates, helped by lower emission charges in JLR and solid profitability

Production time: 03:19* (London time)

in India PV. While TMPV’s progress on profitability is encouraging, we are concerned about the

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

weakening global auto demand, especially for the premium segment. While demand in the US has

Kumar Rakesh started weakening, deteriorating consumer confidence in the UK and EU suggest weak demandBNP Paribas Securities India Private

Limited outlook. Maintain Neutral. Our sector top picks are MSIL and MM.

(+91) 22 6196 4350

kumar.rakesh@asia.bnpparibas.com What did we learn from the quarter? Strong recovery aided in achieving guided EBIT margin

TMPV revenue was c3% lower than BNPPe as well as consensus expectations, impacted by lower

ASP sequentially. EBITDA margin of 11.7% beat BNPPe (9.7%) and consensus expectations

(8.2%) owing to normalisation of overhead cost and tariff reversals. Efficient working capital led to

FCF inflow of cGBP829m in 4QFY26 at JLR.

Implications for our investment view? Key downside risks: weakness in global demand

For JLR, management sees growth potential for core brands in NA, the UK and Europe to be

stable, and China as stabilising after retailer adjustments. Among model launches in CY26, the first

will be the Electric RR and RR Sport, followed by the reveal of Jaguar Type 01 production version