VG: Post Q1 Update; Upside to Wider Spreads Captured in Our Model—Stay EW

Research evidence excerpt

VG: Post Q1 Update; Upside to Wider Spreads Captured in Our Model—Stay EW

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — May 13, 2026

Midstream Energy

Venture Global, Inc.

Post Q1 Update; Upside to Wider Spreads Captured in Our Equal Weight

Model—Stay EW Price Target: $14.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

Q1 beat & VG raised 2026 guidance above consensus but essentially in line with our EBITDA 8.58B 8.54B 0.4%

forecast. We had already assumed wider int'l spreads and our 2026 forecast is essentially (MM) 2026

unchanged. We're trimming 2027 ests on new contracts/lower margins. Stay EW. EBITDA 6.32B 7.63B -17.1%

(MM) 2027

Rev. (MM) 2026 15.56B 13.65B 14.0%

Adjusting Estimates. Our 2026 EBITDA forecast of $8.58B is essentially unchanged and

is slightly above the high end of guidance ($8.5B). The Q1 beat and lower assumed opex is Rev. (MM) 2027 15.39B 16.82B -8.5%

offset by lower contributions from contracted volumes. Specifically, we assume mid-term

deals commencing in Q2’26 are struck at ~$5.00–$5.50/MMBtu, versus current spreads Ticker VG

of >$10/MMBtu. We are reducing our 2027 EBITDA estimate to $6.32B from $7.63B to Upside/(Downside) to Target 5.5%

reflect lower-margins on contracted volumes and reduced spreads. Price (05/12/2026) $13.27

52 Week Range $5.72 - 19.50

Lower Operating Expenses Likely To Persist. VG reported lower Q1 operating expenses Market Cap (MM) $32,604

versus our estimates across all categories—O&M, G&A, and development. Annualizing Q1 Enterprise Value (MM) $67,587

implies O&M of $1.08B, G&A of $388MM, and development expense of $184MM, all well Average Daily Value (MM) $345

below 2026 guidance of $1.3B, $550MM, and $300MM, respectively. On the call back,

Dividend Yield 0.5%