APAC Economic Comment "ASEAN Weekly: Diverging growth paths, policy prio..."

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Economic Comment "ASEAN Weekly: Diverging growth paths, policy prio..."

Global Research

15 May 2026ab

APAC Economic Comment Economics

AsiaASEAN Weekly: Diverging growth paths, policy

priority shifts Claire Long

Economist

claire.long@ubs.com

+65 6495 7426

Two weeks in review: Diverging growth paths and rising policy caution Grace Lim

This week, we reviewed key drivers across the region, highlighting increasingly divergent Economist

growth dynamics (see Asia by the Numbers). The tech upcycle continues to gain traction, grace-k.lim@ubs.com

+65-6495 5965

while intensifying energy headwinds are weighing more heavily on oil-importing

economies, particularly within ASEAN. Q1 GDP releases largely reinforced this

divergence. In the Philippines, we downgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% (from

4.0%), as intensifying inflation pressures are more clearly dampening consumption (see

note). In contrast, Indonesia posted stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, supported by

front-loaded fiscal spending. However, this momentum is likely to fade given constraints

to maintain the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP (see note). On the policy front, BNM kept

the OPR unchanged at 2.75%, but shifted to a more balanced stance, signalling

increased attention to both inflation risks and growth concerns (see note).

Thailand: Potential additional government borrowing poses upside growth risk

The government has approved an emergency decree authorising up to Bt400bn (~2%

of GDP) in borrowing to counter cost-of-living pressures stemming from the global

energy shock. Roughly half of the envelope (Bt200bn) will fund short-term relief—

primarily through further rounds of consumption stimulus, including co-payment

schemes with a higher government subsidy share, and state welfare card top-ups. The