This week in MENA "15 May 2026" Peace

Research evidence excerpt

This week in MENA "15 May 2026" Peace

MENA Banks (Sector Keys): Post 1Q26: Resilient guidance and revisions

We expected to see no material revision to FY26 guidance from Saudi banks as loan

growth had already slowed to single digits in anticipation of higher capital requirements,

and a higher oil price would help support GDP and cost of risk expectations. However

with UAE banks having raised FY26 loan growth guidance to mid-teens post-Q4, and

with the economy more at risk from disruption from the conflict, we expected a greater

risk of guidance downgrades. Nevertheless, based on an assumption of an end to the

conflict during Q2 and a swift recovery in activity, the UAE banks also largely maintained

FY26 guidance. This was based on the strength of growth already in January and

February and a strong corporate pipeline, plus an expected acceleration in GRE

borrowing as the UAE government looked to support the economy. While most

UAE banks took provision overlays amounting to several hundred million Dirhams

(ADIB was an exception) a high level of prior year recoveries booked in Q1 made a

substantial offset, and also allowed them to maintain FY cost of risk guidance.

MENA Equity Research: MENA high frequency recovery indicators

The fifth week of US-Iran ceasefire saw continued disruption, with slight worsening of

hotel occupancy, traffic congestion and vessels traffic overall, however rental

registrations improved in Dubai, and crossings in the strait of Hormuz ticked up to 13

daily since 10 May (versus 1 to 2 daily the prior week). Saudi remains less disrupted than

MENA peers.

HOLT Emerging Markets View: MENA Fertilizer stocks- scope for a higher

scarcity premium?

We take the opportunity to review the largest fertilizer producers in the region - SABIC