Allegro "Margins still improving; FY26 guidance upside" (Buy) Potyra

Research evidence excerpt

Allegro "Margins still improving; FY26 guidance upside" (Buy) Potyra

Checking pulse of the Polish e-commerce market

The Polish e-commerce sector started the year strongly with c10% increases in January

and February, followed by 17% jump in March (supported by Easter shift). April brought

moderation of the growth rate (+7%) due to the reversal of the Easter effect seen in

March. For the year, we expect that the market should maintain a high-single digit

growth rate with key risks around the energy price shock and overall inflation on

consumer sentiment. Over the medium term, we foresee the price advantage of cross-

border players from Asia potentially being affected by the €3 fee per parcel (applicable

to duty-free shipments) introduced from July onward, potentially improving local

players' competitive position.

The Baselinker index shows Polish e-

Figure 2: Polish e-commerce market growth rate (%, yoy) commerce market yoy growth rates

Pol e- me mar gr h stable at 9-10% yoy over January and

February; acceleration to 17% in

March and slowing to 7% in April.

yoy)

(%,

Source: Baselinker, UBS

Figure 3: Polish e-commerce market growth rate broken down per domestic and We note that over the past few

cross-border (yoy, %) quarters the cross-border trade

continues growing nearly 2x the

do speed of the domestic market.

per

wn

do

ken

bro

over pastfew q -bord

tte ers cross

the uart the

ra

hat h

c

o s and2xross-b order (yoy, %) marra con mesticnea the f domest ic the peeder de tinues growi ng rly

erce m rket g owt

Allegro and Temu dominate the

Figure 4: Monthly Active Users (MAU) for top e-commerce platforms in Poland traffic with highest MAU on the

market. After period of fast growth,

rs ( Temu's MAU reached Allegro level

Use but has plateaued since.

tive

y Ac

thl

Mon f

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