European Equity Strategy "Simply Switzerland: Swiss Cheese Recovery" Chedda

Research evidence excerpt

European Equity Strategy "Simply Switzerland: Swiss Cheese Recovery" Chedda

s being invested over the next few months, but it raises the felix.huefner@ubs.com

premium on timing and payoff shaping as the front-load impulse risks fading. +49-69-1369 8280

Earnings: Anchor holds, mix does the work

Swiss earnings expectations have nudged higher month on month, but remain below REVS

the start-of-year level, keeping the earnings anchor intact without delivering a clean

Equities move based on:

revision tailwind. Sales growth has firmed slightly with pharma support, while net

income expectations have improved even without an uplift from pharma itself, pointing Regime,

to broader ex-pharma operating leverage. The market-cap weighted growth impulse

continues to be led by diversified financials and capital goods. The practical implication is Earnings,

familiar: Switzerland should still protect the level, but upside is increasingly idiosyncratic,

so selection matters more than simply buying the index’s defensive concentration. Valuations, and

Sentiment.

Valuation: Premium stays, breadth reopens

The structural Swiss premium remains intact, consistent with a flow-supported Our REVS framework combines

allocation market where passive demand makes valuation discipline weaker. Valuation regime, earnings, valuation and

breadth is back above average, with 64% of Swiss stocks trading below their 10-year sentiment to give a 2–6 month

average relative P/E, and a growing divergence between SMID and large-cap breadth. tactical signal.

The message is to respect the premium, but lean into selectivity and structure, paying up

only where quality is still mispriced and avoiding the assumption that the premium will Signals lean cautiously constructive

do the work on its own.