Dubai Electricity and Water Authority "1Q26; record results, >80%..."

Research evidence excerpt

Dubai Electricity and Water Authority "1Q26; record results, >80%..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 15.5%

Forecast dividend yield 4.6%

Forecast stock return 20.1%

Market return assumption 8.9%

Forecast excess return 11.1%

Company Description

Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) is a UAE-based utility services provider. It is

primarily engaged in water desalination and distribution, the generation, transmission and

distribution of electricity throughout the Emirate of Dubai, as well as the provision of district

cooling operations.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value DEWA using a DCF methodology. The key risks include:

1. Regulatory and Tariff Risk - DEWA operates under a regulated tariff regime governed by the

Dubai Supreme Council of Energy. Any delay or adverse change in tariff adjustments, fuel

surcharge mechanisms, or regulatory deferral recoveries could directly impact revenue

recognition and cash flows.

2. Execution Risk on Mega Projects - DEWA is undertaking large-scale infrastructure solar

projects. Delays, cost overruns, or technical failures could impair capacity expansion, delay

returns, and affect valuation.

3. Climate and Natural Disaster Exposure - Extreme weather events (e.g., rainstorms) have

already caused asset damage and write-offs. While insurance mitigates some losses, recurring

events could disrupt operations, increase costs, and reduce asset reliability.

4. Interest Rate and Refinancing Risk - DEWA has more than 85% of borrowings exposed to

variable interest rates. A 100 bps rate hike could reduce profit and equity significantly. While

partially hedged, rising rates or covenant breaches pose refinancing challenges.

5. Energy Transition and Stranded Asset Risk - DEWA targets 100% clean energy by 2050.