Iran disruption tracker #52: US driving season in focus. Are retail prices at a tipping point?

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #52: US driving season in focus. Are retail prices at a tipping point?

ignals hardline stance on Iran: POTUS reiterated the US expects to achieve its objectives in Iran either

diplomatically or militarily, while downplaying the importance of Chinese involvement in any eventual resolution.

●Japan refinery utilization improving: Japanese refinery runs are rebounding in May as strategic petroleum reserve

releases and increased intake of non-Middle East crude cargoes help alleviate the supply tightness that impacted

the market through Mar & Apr.

●US Venezuelan crude imports surge: US imports of Venezuelan crude climbed to a 7.5yr high last week, making

Venezuela the second-largest source of US crude imports behind Canada as refiners continue seeking heavy crude

alternatives amid Middle East supply disruptions.

●Iran considering Strait of Hormuz transit fees: Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi said Tehran is developing a potential

“service fee” framework for vessels transiting the SoH, with fees purportedly tied to navigation assistance and

maritime rescue operations.

●US military actively managing commercial shipping traffic: US CentCom said US forces redirected 67 commercial

vessels amid ongoing maritime security operations tied to Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions and regional military

activity.

Things to watch

●Trump–Xi meeting — Markets will closely watch Trump’s discussions with President Xi for signals around Iranian

crude flows, sanctions enforcement, and Hormuz stability. Any cooperation from China could ease geopolitical

risk premiums, while deeper China-Iran alignment could heighten concerns around prolonged supply disruptions.

●Monitoring the IEA's Energy crisis: policy response tracker now estimates the cumulative actions by mainly non-