AFRM - Investor Forum Highlights Continued Differentiation and Growth Durability

Research evidence excerpt

AFRM - Investor Forum Highlights Continued Differentiation and Growth Durability

Payments, Processors, & IT Services

Payments & Processors - Market Overweight

AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC. (AFRM) May 13, 2026

AFRM - Investor Forum Highlights Continued Rating:

Differentiation and Growth Durability Peer Perform

Price:

$65.43

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

AFRM hosted its 2026 Investor Forum yesterday. We come away constructive on NA

the company's continued differentiation/execution in its core business, emerging View AFRM Model

View Comp Tableareas of growth over the medium-term, and updated financial framework.

Company Information

●Updated Medium-Term Financial Framework: AFRM's next GMV milestone 52-Week Range $43 - $92 Market Cap. (MM) $19,132

is $100bn, and the medium-term framework calls for 25%+ annual GMV Enterprise Value (MM) $28,720

growth. For reference, we model 28% GMV growth in FY28 to ~$83bn, implying Shares Out. (MM) 292.4

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $505.21

$100bn could be achieved in FY29 (run-rate by CY28) - though we note SI% of Float 6.8%

elements of conservatism in both our estimates and the m-term framework.

Key building blocks for the framework include merchant POS (10ppts+), D2C 100

(10ppts+), and International (1-5ppts). Further upside could come from Affirm 90

80 Edge and agentic commerce. AFRM raised its target RLTC as a % of GMV range

from 3-4% to 3.75-4% (vs. investor expectations for ~3.5-4.0%). At the $100bn 70

GMV milestone, AFRM also expects to see revenue take rate of 7.5-8.5%, GAAP 60

operating margins of 20-25%, adjusted operating margins of 30-35%, a mid- 50

to-high 20s % tax rate, less than or equal to 3% annual dilution, and $3-$4 in 40 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26

GAAP EPS. AFRM