China Watch: Trump’s China visit: stability instead of breakthroughs

Research evidence excerpt

China Watch: Trump’s China visit: stability instead of breakthroughs

In our view, the absence of escalatory language and the broader shift in discussions

toward non‑tariff areas leave room for selective calibration of export controls. Any

concrete easing in this area would therefore surprise markets on the upside and could

become a key channel for incremental improvement in economic relations.

Business leader: President Xi met senior US executives and reiterated that China’s door

“will only open wider,” emphasizing that both countries stand to gain from cooperation

and lose from confrontation. These statements remain largely directional, with limited

detail on implementation so.

Iran: Greater convergence than expected

One area where outcomes appear stronger than we previously expected is Iran.

According to US officials, both sides explicitly agreed that Iran can never have nuclear

weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to ensure the free flow of

energy. Chinese officials also signaled opposition to any form of tolls in the Strait and

expressed interest in increasing US oil purchases to reduce reliance on this geopolitical

chokepoint over time. While China has long supported openness in Hormuz given its

trade and energy exposure, the degree of alignment in public messaging suggests a

clearer convergence of interests, in our view.

Taiwan: rhetoric hardens, but asymmetry persists

By contrast, Taiwan continues to stand out as the most sensitive and unresolved issue.

President Xi described Taiwan as the most important issue anchoring the US–China

relationship and urged the US to handle the Taiwan issue with extreme caution and

warned of serious consequences if it is mishandled. Meanwhile, President Trump said he