Daily Boarding: Rumo update; DongFeng to enter BZ market; Copa call highlights

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Boarding: Rumo update; DongFeng to enter BZ market; Copa call highlights

Accessible version

Daily Boarding

Rumo update; DongFeng to enter BZ

market; Copa call highlights

Industry Overview

Rumo: Capex and liabilities temper volume upside 15 May 2026

We lowered Rumo's PO to R$20/sh from R$22, mainly reflecting higher capex Equity

assumptions and a more conservative view on South concession liabilities. On the 1Q26 Latin America

call, management indicated capex should remain broadly in line with the 2024-25 level, Daily Boarding

even after LRV Phase 1 is completed in 3Q26 - mainly as Malha Paulista obligations and Rogerio Araujo >>

rolling stock needs should keep investments elevated. We now foresee a c.R$5bn annual Research Analyst

capex level for 2027-28E from c.R$2.5bn previously. Moreover, we now conservatively Merrill+55 11Lynch2188 (Brazil)4255

include 50% of the R$2.9bn recognized liability related to Malha Oeste, from zero rogerio.araujo@bofa.com

previously, given unpaid historical concession fees and the nearing of the concession Gabriel Frazao >>

Research Analyst

expiration by June 2026. For Malha Sul (expiration by February 2027), we keep our Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

assumption of a 50% disallowance (related to non-amortized investments) on the +55 11 2188 4252

gabriel.frazao@bofa.com

estimated c.R$6bn potential liability, paid in eight annual installments. We reiterate Buy.

Rumo remains a compelling long-term story, with valuation still reflecting depressed

tariffs and upside from a potential grain-cycle recovery. See: Capex and liabilities temper CASM: Cost per Available Seat Mile

volume upside; Reiterating Buy on valuation for details.

DongFeng to enter the Brazilian light vehicle market