Packaged Food Industry: Thoughts ahead of April quarter end earnings – CPB, SJM & HRL

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Packaged Food Industry: Thoughts ahead of April quarter end earnings – CPB, SJM & HRL

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Packaged Food Industry

Thoughts ahead of April quarter end

earnings – CPB, SJM & HRL

Price Objective Change

Executive summary & positioning thoughts 15 May 2026

Campbell (CPB), Smucker (SJM), and Hormel (HRL) will report over the next few weeks. Equity

We keep estimates largely stable near term but reset FY27 lower on a more challenging United States

cost backdrop (freight, packaging, ag commodities). Positioning remains net long SJM Food

(Buy) and net short CPB (Underperform). We expect dividend cut chatter for the industry Peter T. Galbo, CFA

to grow louder after B&G Foods’ (BGS; not covered) announcement earlier this week. Research Analyst

BofAS

CPB – maintain 3Q26/FY26 adj. EPS & lower PO to $20 +1peter.galbo@bofa.com646 743 0175

We maintain 3Q26/FY26 adj. EPS at $0.50/$2.20 (vs. Street $0.49/$2.18) with only Chris Downing

modest FY26 changes. The more material revision is for FY27/28 where we lower adj. ResearchBofAS Analyst

EPS to $1.95/$2.00 (vs. Street $2.15/$2.26 and prior $2.20/$2.25) on a more challenging +1 646 855 4345

christopher.downing@bofa.com

cost outlook. We now assume ~5% inflation in FY27 from geopolitical-driven input costs

Yasmine Deswandhy

vs. ~4% productivity, driving margin compression by ~90bps in FY27 vs prior estimates. Research Analyst

For 3Q, we model organic sales at -3.1% (vs. -2.8% in 2Q) on weaker Nielsen trends, BofAS

+1 646 855 3745

particularly in Snacks. Meals & Bev benefits from a ~$20mm weather tailwind but laps a yasmine.deswandhy@bofa.com

~$30mm ERP benefit. Reiterate Underperform rating and lower PO to $20 (from $23

PO) still based on 10x CY27E EPS.

SJM – lower 4Q26/FY26 adj. EPS & lower PO to $130

We lower 4Q26/FY26 adj.