Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - Natural gas, rising tide lifts all boats

Research evidence excerpt

Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - Natural gas, rising tide lifts all boats

"a rising tide lifts all boats"

That said, in a tight or “energy-starved” system, price relationships remain highly interconnected. FuelEnergy

substitution and cross-commodity competition ensure that no market moves in isolation. Effectively,

Energy | Sector Flash | 13 May 2026 | 08:38

“a rising tide lifts all boats,” and the competitiveness of any given fuel is increasingly defined by the

pricing of the broader energy complex. For the time being, European gas seems "locked-in" between

fuel oil and propane to downside and Brent and JKM to the upside. Thus, it is hard to point out any

Natural gas, rising tide lifts all boats fuel-related mispricing of the front month TTF.

● TTF discount vs Brent, premium vs propane

● Masking underlying tightness

● Brent structurally higher premium to gas

● "A rising tide lifts all boats"

TTF discount vs Brent, premium vs propane

Front month TTF contract (July) yesterday traded ~$94/boe in crude oil equivalent terms, as compares

to Brent at ~$108. Thus, TTF is trading at a discount to Brent as well as a discount to the East Asian

JKM LNG benchmark at $102, while trading at a premium versus propane at $91 and heavy fuel oil at

$89 in Far East Asia. Gasoil (heating oil/diesel) continues trading at a heavy premium compared to all

other fuels in the stack, mirroring a particular tightness in the transport-fuel market.

Masking underlying tightness

Oil and gas demand for residential and commercial heating and cooling is seasonally at its lowest this

time of year, somewhat easing or even covering up the underlying market tightness. Since the war

broke out almost two and a half months ago, the TTF price has shifted several times position amongst

the other fuels in the stack.