April Card & Auto DQs Generally Positive; Auto NCOs Modest Negative

Research evidence excerpt

April Card & Auto DQs Generally Positive; Auto NCOs Modest Negative

Flash Note Financials | Specialty Finance

May 15, 2026

Capital One Financial Corporation John Pancari Girard Sweeney 212 497 0861 646 551 8503

COF | $185.79 john.pancari@evercoreisi.com girard.sweeney@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $222.00 Russ Anderson

Company Update 212-497-0887

Russ.Anderson@evercoreisi.com

April credit card data positive vs EVR/Street with auto data mixed. April credit card DQs screen positive relative to EVR/Street,

while auto DQs screen slightly above EVR but positive to Street estimates. Credit card NCOs appear positive to EVR/Street, though

auto NCOs screen negative to both EVR/Street. DQ improvement moderated in April for card relative to March though accelerated

for auto. Overall, a modest positive from the implied seasonal credit data for 2Q26 with the caveat of higher auto NCOs.

Implied 2Q26 card DQs screen positively relative to EVR and Street. COF's credit card 30+ day DQs for April totaled ~$8.8B

or 3.44%, decreasing 51 bps YOY and 26 bps MOM. Assuming historical trends, this implies card DQs of 3.42% in 2Q26, which

screen below EVR/Street (-13 bps/-16 bps). DQ improvement moderated slightly in April, decreasing 51 bps YOY vs 55 bps in

March.

Implied 2Q26 card NCOs below EVR and Street. COF's credit card NCOs for April totaled ~$1.04B or 4.94%, decreasing 72 bps

YOY and 15 bps MOM. Assuming historical trends, this implies 4.62% for 2Q26, which screens below EVR and Street (-48 bps/-

24 bps). NCO improvement moderated, decreasing 72 bps YOY vs 100 bps in March.

Credit card balances screen below EVR. EOP domestic card loan balances increased 70% YOY (due to DFS acquisition) and

0.5% MOM.