Off-Cycle Compute Semis Preview: Focusing on the Signal, Not Just Bottlenecks

Research evidence excerpt

Off-Cycle Compute Semis Preview: Focusing on the Signal, Not Just Bottlenecks

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

May 14, 2026

■Semiconductors Off-Cycle Compute Semis Preview: Focusing

■Telecom & Networking Equipment

on the Signal, Not Just Bottlenecks

Joshua Buchalter, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1303

AI capex dollars continue to move higher as investors scour the ecosystem for the next

joshua.buchalter@tdsecurities.com

"bottleneck" to infrastructure builds. This has led to bifurcation within the infrastructure trade

Sean O'Loughlin, CFA as the largest accelerator companies underperform while optical (and CPU) trade higher on

646 562 1327 expectations of coming (or existing) shortages. Our industry numbers move higher across the

sean.oloughlin@tdsecurities.com

board amidst ongoing momentum.

Ethan Potasnick

646 562 1425 Bottleneck-Hunting Has Led to Divergence in Stock Outcomes, With "Supply Chain" Plays

ethan.potasnick@tdsecurities.com Materially Outperforming AI Bellwethers: The undercurrent of the semis and AI infrastructure

Lannie Trieu, CFA trade has, in our view, shifted over the last six months from "who will be the beneficiaries"

415 646 7217 to "where will the next bottleneck be." Investors have observed strong stock performance

lannie.trieu@tdsecurities.com in optics & memory due to each's respective criticality to AI infrastructure builds, and are

searching for what's next? We observe many attempting to identify where the next "golden

Sam Reiff, CFA

screw" will be, be it in central processing, different parts of the optics value chain, or more312 577 2217

sam.reiff@tdsecurities.com recently in analog and power semis. This has been reflected in stock performance over the last

three months, as our "Compute" vs.