Coal Earnings Wrap: Disappointing Results Season as Margins Compress

Research evidence excerpt

Coal Earnings Wrap: Disappointing Results Season as Margins Compress

USA | Metals & Mining EquityMayResearch12, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Coal Earnings Wrap: Disappointing Results

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETSeason as Margins Compress

CNR BUY $110.00

Despite coal prices rallying in March and in most cases remaining relatively BTU BUY $40.00

high, 1Q results for the US coal miners in our coverage were disappointing, and HCC BUY $120.00

guidance was negative due to rising costs. We remain optimistic that margins AMR HOLD $195.00

will improve in 2H and that seaborne coal prices will remain relatively high, METC BUY $20.00

but patience is being tested as an energy bull market should have been good

enough for these companies to deliver positive results and guides.

We have updated our models to reflect the disappointing 1Q results for the US coal miners in

our coverage. Bulls will argue that thermal coal is in the midst of a market-share resurgence, and

that the PLV met coal price troughed in 2025 and has now rebased to a higher, more normalized

level. Lower quality met coal prices are still depressed, but coal miners have consistently argued

that these lower prices are unsustainable, with loss-making mines expected to close and prices to

then recover. Bears will argue that, even in a higher coal-price environment, these companies have

reported disappointing results and weak guidance. Our view is that margins in 2Q will contract due

to rising costs, but the investment case for these companies is that margins will expand thereafter

and lead to stronger cash flow and capital returns. We recognize that there is increased downside

risk to our base case scenario, but we are sticking with our constructive view on the US coal sector.