Execution Gains Evident; Growth Profile Still Constrained

Research evidence excerpt

Execution Gains Evident; Growth Profile Still Constrained

USA | Leisure

Hilton Grand Vacations EquityMayResearch12, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEExecution Gains Evident; Growth Profile Still

RATING HOLDConstrained

PRICE $46.04^

Our model update includes the Elara interest and other fine-tuning adjustments,

which taken with the quarterly results and guidance, are generally neutral for the PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $51.00 ($50.00) | +11%

shares. We continue to believe that the stability of timeshare business models 52W HIGH-LOW $52.08 - $36.79

in low-visibility environments, although valuation multiples can compress. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 77.9% | 39.57

Notwithstanding the acquisition of Elara, we view the growth rates of HGV MARKET CAP $3.6B

incrementally more modest vs. peers, which drives our Hold rating. TICKER HGV ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Headline Results: On 4/30 BMO, HGV announced 1Q26 results. From an operating standpoint,

consolidated tour flow of 189.4K was above our 186.3K estimate, while VPG of $3,778 was slightly

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

below our estimate of $3,844. The loan loss provision of 14.9% was below our estimate of 16.5%.

2026 2027 2026 2027

Total revenue of $1,310M (incl. net deferrals of $25M) was above our estimate of $1,253M, which

did not incorporate a deferral adjustment, and above the Street's estimate of $1,272M. Economic REV* +1% +3% +1% +2%

adj. EBITDA of $267M (incl. $18M of net deferrals) was above our estimate of $233M and the EBITDA +6% +5% +5% +3%

Street's $238M. Going forward, our sales and adjusted EBITDA estimates will be presented on a

deferral adjusted basis, consistent with HGV's reported figures. 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

EBITDA 266.9 302.0 339.2 337.4 1,245.5