Execution Improving, But FY27 Guide Falls Short

Research evidence excerpt

Execution Improving, But FY27 Guide Falls Short

deliberate actions in Q4 to accelerate the 2022 represents baseline year for future

inventory reset, characterizing the improvement as not just lower inventory but better inventory. comparisons due to fiscal year change

UAA ended the year with $309M in cash and $605M in restricted investments earmarked to cover

senior notes due this June, which should meaningfully reduce leverage once retired.

What We Didn't Like

(1) GM Miss Persists Amid Structural Pressure. 4Q GM of 43.1% declined 350bps YoY and missed

cons (44.2%), driven by tariff pressure, elevated promotional activity, and unfavorable regional mix.

FX and channel mix were partial offsets, but core GM pressure persists.

(2) FY27 Outlook Below Expectations. FY27 guidance came in below across most key metrics, with

revenue expected to decline slightly YoY (vs cons +2%), and adj. op income guided to $140-160M

(vs cons $160.7M) inclusive of ~$70M of tariff refunds. While GM is implied between 47.9%-48.4%

(vs cons 46.4%), ~150bps of the improvement reflects assumed tariff refunds. Adj. EPS guidance

of $0.08-0.12 also fell below cons of $0.23.

What We See Ahead

Stabilization Underway, but Turnaround Requires Patience. UAA continues to make progress

Randal J. Konik * | Equity Analystthrough its multi-year reset, supported by cleaner inventories, steady international performance, and

(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.com

greater focus on revenue quality. While FY27 reflects stabilization, a material inflection in revenue

Carlos Gallagher * | Equity Associategrowth and margin recovery has yet to emerge, keeping shares range-bound.

+1 (786) 535-2025 | cgallagher1@jefferies.com

FY (Dec) 2025A 2026A 2027E 2028E Ty-Lynn Johnson * | Equity Associate