Song Remains the Same - Beat, Raise, Efficiency Gains

Research evidence excerpt

Song Remains the Same - Beat, Raise, Efficiency Gains

Canada | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Paramount Resources EquityMayResearch12, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGESong Remains the Same - Beat, Raise, Efficiency

RATING BUYGains

PRICE C$29.24^

POU printed another production/CFPS beat driven by outperformance at

Alhambra. Production guidance was raised for 1H26, while 2H26 was PRICE TARGET | % TO PT C$36.00 (C$35.00) | +23%

maintained. Capex guidance was lowered for '26 and '27 on capital efficiencies. 52W HIGH-LOW C$31.42 - C$16.79

Alhambra Ph 2 start-up was accelerated to June and WG's plateau was raised FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 51.3% | 5.83

to 70 mboe/d. Sinclair remains on track for late '27. Liquidity supports POU's MARKET CAP C$4.3B | $3.2B

planned outspend and mgmt reiterated flexibility around the Sinclair spend. TICKER POU CN ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

1Q Results: Production of 48.3mboe/d surpassed Cons/JEFe of 44.3/44.2mboe/d. The 50% liquids

cut was also ahead of our 47% estimate. The beat was due to continued outperfomance of Duvernay

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

wells and at the Alhambra plant. The production beat drove most of the CFPS beat (C$0.97 vs Cons/

2026 2027 2026 2027

JEFe of C$0.85/C$0.84), which also benefited from lower opex and royalties. Capex of C$257mn

was below Cons/JEFe of C$293mn/C$300mn. 1Q's organic cash burn (including dividends) of C EBITDA +1% -6% +1% -2%

$135mn was less than the C$198mn we had assumed. CFPS* -4% -6% -1% -3%

FY26 Guidance Raised: POU increased FY26 production guidance modestly to 48-52 mboe/d 2026 (C$) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

from 46-51 mboe/d (50% liquids cut unchanged), though we note a higher content of NGLs vs oil/ CFPS* 0.97 0.98 1.09 1.46 4.49

condy than previously guided.