FY3/27 OP Guidance: Neutral Impression

Research evidence excerpt

FY3/27 OP Guidance: Neutral Impression

Japan | Capital Goods

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries EquityMayResearch12, 2026

FLASH NOTEFY3/27 OP Guidance: Neutral Impression

FY3/27 OP guidance missed the Sell-side consensus forecast. Mgmt is RATING BUY

including a risk buffer of ¥20bn for power generation business, based on PRICE ¥4,384^

its conservatism rather than any potential cost overrun of ongoing projects. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT ¥6,000 | +37%

Mgmt forecasts YoY declines in the orders for gas turbines and defense 52W HIGH-LOW ¥5,208 - ¥2,628

business, but we believe this is attributable to a high comparison base rather FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 93.5% | 99,625.84

than any deterioration of the demand environment. MARKET CAP ¥14.7T | $93.8B

TICKER 7011 JP

FY3/27 OP guidance below the consensus figure: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ('MHI') ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.

revealed its FY3/27 OP guidance of ¥540bn (+25% YoY) at 13:30 JST on 12 May. This

falls short of Sell-side consensus forecast of ¥554.5bn. The market reacted negatively to

this announcement, and the stock closed -1.9% vs 11 May (TOPIX: +0.8%). Investors have

pointed out to us that Sell-side consensus forecast looks high, but such post-result share

price move suggests that MHI's OP guidance may have also missed Buy-side expectations.

Mgmt's forecast of YoY declines in the orders for gas turbines and defense business could

be another factor behind the market reaction. Mgmt incorporates YoY negative impact of

¥25.2bn from wage hike, but it expects positive contribution of ¥83bn from sales gains and

improving profitability of ongoing projects, ¥30bn from the absence of goodwill impairment

loss at Concentric (a US power system solutions provider MHI acquired in 2023), ¥10bn from