Federal Budget 2026-27 - Implications for Consumer

Research evidence excerpt

Federal Budget 2026-27 - Implications for Consumer

Australia | Consumer EquityMayResearch12, 2026

Federal Budget 2026-27 - Implications for

Consumer

Modest tax relief may provide some offset, but we view Budget as negative

for consumption. CGT/ negative gearing changes likely to weigh on house

price wealth effect, and Baby Boomers, who have exhibited strong demand

are disproportionately affected. Increased immigration forecasts positive,

but net immigration still expected to slow. ALD/VEA are winners given

importance of fuel security & we see a path to more stable refining earnings

with government backing.

Modest tax relief - All working Australians will receive $250 tax offset from FY28 in addition to

$1,000 instant tax deduction for work expenses. From FY27, the tax rate on $18,201-$45,000

income bracket will reduce from 16% to 15% ($268 tax cut) and drop to 14% (further $268)

from FY28 onwards. Companies making a loss will be able to offset against tax paid in prior

two years from FY27. $20k instant asset write-off will be extended permanently from FY27.

Positive for MTS's Total Tools, JBH & HVN.

Housing affordability a key focus but CGT changes will impact all assets - 50% capital gains

tax (CGT) discount will transition to indexation from FY28 with minimum 30% tax on real gains.

Only capital gains prior to 1 July 2027 will receive a 50% CGT discount (i.e. no grandfathering

of existing assets). Investors in new builds may choose between a 50% CGT discount or new

arrangements. Negative gearing on residential property restricted to new builds from FY29,

with existing investments grandfathered. Analysis of Australian Bank exposure to investor

housing lending suggests ANZ & NAB are least exposed.