国内石油精製企業の4Q：コスモと出光興産の決算

Research evidence excerpt

国内石油精製企業の4Q：コスモと出光興産の決算

normalization of supply-demand

balances from 2Q onward, including recovery in Asian markets and stable domestic margins

(excluding cost pass-through effects). Structurally, domestic fuel demand continues to decline due

to efficiency gains and demographic trends, while profitability remains heavily influenced by oil

price movements, time-lag effects, and refinery utilization/export dynamics. These assumptions

highlight that Idemitsu’s earnings remain cyclical and externally driven, with limited organic growth

drivers near-term.

Middle East tensions impact The Middle East situation is explicitly highlighted as a major

uncertainty, particularly the blockade and instability around the Strait of Hormuz, which has already

driven volatility in oil prices. Management’s response centers on ensuring stable domestic supply

as the top priority, including diversifying crude procurement away from the Middle East, maintaining

refinery operations, and prioritizing domestic sales over exports while passing through higher costs.

The FY3/27 assumptions incorporate a scenario where navigation through Hormuz normalizes

from 2Q, but with residual disruption keeping prices elevated short term. Crucially, the Middle East

situation drives both positive (FY3/26) and negative (FY3/27) time-lag effects, making it the single

most important swing factor for earnings volatility and visibility.

Share buybacks and shareholder returns Idemitsu maintains a strong shareholder return

framework, with FY3/26 dividends of ¥36/share (unchanged YoY) and a commitment to ≥50% total

payout ratio (ex-inventory effects) over the medium term. The company has announced a new

¥25bn share buyback (up to 25m shares, ~2% of shares outstanding), with all repurchased shares to