The Daily Canuck 12.05.2026

Research evidence excerpt

The Daily Canuck 12.05.2026

ccording to the Bank

of Canada’s latest Market Participants Survey. The first-quarter survey, conducted from March 25 to

April 1 among 28 business and financial leaders, was completed after the start of the war in Iran.

A total of 82% of respondents identified geopolitical risks as a key downside threat to economic

growth, compared with 79% who cited rising trade tensions and 57% who pointed to tightening

global financial conditions. On the upside, 86% of participants said easing trade tensions could

support economic growth, while 57% highlighted larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus and 43% pointed

to higher commodity prices and declining geopolitical risks. In the previous survey from Q4 2025,

conducted before the Iran war, trade tensions ranked as the top risk, followed by global financial

tightening and weaker consumer spending. The Bank of Canada has said the Middle East conflict, U.S.

tariff measures and the upcoming CUSMA review have added significant uncertainty to the outlook.

Survey respondents put the median probability of a recession in the next six months at 25%, up from

20% previously but below early-2025 levels. Median forecasts see GDP growing 1.6% y/y in 2026 and

inflation at 2.6% by year-end.

Vancouver rental tower goes into receivership after pension fund calls in $109M debt (Financial

Post) Yesterday, Financial Post reported that a nearly completed 35-storey rental tower in east

Vancouver has been placed into receivership after an Ontario pension fund sought to recover $109M

in debt, underscoring mounting financial strain at major developer Westbank. Court documents filed

in B.C. Supreme Court by a former senior employee allege Westbank is in a financially precarious