Commodity Tracker: Headwinds Building Into 2H

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Tracker: Headwinds Building Into 2H

gher still. Our JEF Commodity Index is pointing to +2.1% 2026 y/y input

costs, a ~90-bp increase from our April estimates. 61% of the commodities we track posted upward Our JEF Food Commodity Index analyzes

revisions vs. our prior estimates in 2026, mainly driven by energy, oilseeds, and cocoa. For 2H26, 36 commodities across the agricultural and

69% of commodities we track are expected to be inflationary y/y, with nonfat dry milk (+45%), energy landscape and forecasts the direction

soybean oil (+40%), hard red wheat (+34%), and soft red wheat (+22%) increasing the most among of the larger commodity backdrop over the

food commodities. In 1H'27, our Index is pointing to a 1.7% y/y increase in input costs, a ~110-bp next 12 months, based on current spot rates,

increase from our prior update. futures contracts, and proprietary forecasts.

Geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains a key overhang on food commodity input costs. * USDA price data for chicken, eggs, and

Ceasefire negotiations have effectively broken down, with the President rejecting Iran's latest peanuts in Oct'25 are unavailable due to

counterproposal on May 10 and signaling minimal optimism for a near-term resolution. The Strait disruptions in government reporting systems

of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial traffic, with throughput at ~5% of normal levels, caused by the government shutdown.

keeping freight, rerouting, and insurance costs elevated across commodities including grains,

Our index doesn't capture labor,oilseeds, fertilizers, and packaging inputs. Company commentary broadly reflects this dynamic,

transportation/freight, or other supply-chainwith management teams across our coverage (MDLZ, NOMD, HSY, POST, KHC, MZTI, and UTZ)