April '26 Speed Check: Shifting Back Into Overdrive; Remain Buy

Research evidence excerpt

April '26 Speed Check: Shifting Back Into Overdrive; Remain Buy

USA | Internet

Carvana EquityMayResearch12, 2026

COMPANY UPDATEApril '26 Speed Check: Shifting Back Into

RATING BUYOverdrive; Remain Buy

PRICE $77.94^

Our CVNA web scrape estimates Retail Units accelerated to ~37% y/y growth in

recent weeks, following a steady improvement since bottoming at 22% growth PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $95.00 | +22%

in mid-March. If we assume May/June follow last year's w/w seasonality, we 52W HIGH-LOW $97.38 - $53.44

estimate CVNA's 2Q Retail Units would grow 38% y/y and imply 1% upside to FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 59.2% | 1,090.78

consensus. Despite our favorable web scrape, we keep our above-consensus MARKET CAP $88.6B

estimates unchanged pending more data points as 2Q progresses. TICKER CVNA ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Growth re-accelerated in early 2Q: Our web scrape estimates Retail Units grew 36%/37% y/y in

the first 2 full wks of April (vs. +40%/+31% y/y in 1Q/March), after growth bottomed at +22% y/y

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

in the 2nd wk of March and did not surpass +32% y/y for the rest of the month. If we assume the

2026 2027 2026 2027

cadence of Retail Unit volumes mirrors FY25 w/w seasonality from 4/19 through the end of June,

REV* NA NA +1% +2%

2Q Retail Units would grow ~38% y/y. This outcome would imply ~1% upside to cons (+36% y/y),

EBITDA NA NA +1% +3%

even after the Street raised ests by ~500 bps since reporting 1Q on 4/29. Importantly, CVNA noted

that April '25 saw a slight pullback in demand following a tariff-driven pull-fwd that benefited March,

before trends normalized in May. We caution that this dynamic could result in slightly less favorable 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

seasonality relative to last year.