Alts 1Q26 Recap - Level Setting Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Alts 1Q26 Recap - Level Setting Expectations

USA | Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges EquityMayResearch12, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Alts 1Q26 Recap - Level Setting Expectations

Following 1Q26 results for the Alternatives, we update our est's and highlight TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

some of the primary industry themes. Fundraising moderated q/q while APO HOLD $142.00

deployment remained at solid levels. Commentary centered around recent ARES HOLD $136.00

private credit concerns and redemptions in the PW channel. On avg, 2Q26 DE BAM HOLD $53.00

est's comes down -7% and 2026/27 est's are down -4%/-5% across the sector, BX BUY $152.00

largely driven by a weaker monetization outlook. Our favorite ideas remain BX CG HOLD $54.00

and KKR.

2Q26/FY26 Distributable EPS Est's down -7%/-4% - On avg, our est's for 2Q distributable earnings KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

est's are down -7%, with FY26/27 estimates down -4%/-5%. On FRE, on avg 2Q est's are down -2%

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

as we continue to see growing mgmt. fees across the group. For 2026/27, we marginally decrease

FRE estimates by -1%/-1% to reflect the more modest growth in the private wealth channel. APO HOLD $142.00 ($115.00)

ARES HOLD $136.00 ($114.00)

Private Credit Quality in Focus - Following a slew of negative headlines, private credit remains a

BAM HOLD $53.00 ($45.00)

major area of focus. Across the board, mgmt. teams pointed towards resilient credit performance

and strong portfolio positioning despite contrary media headlines. However, BX did note that as we BX BUY $152.00 ($143.00)

move towards a period of lower rates, they would expect defaults to move higher compared to the CG HOLD $54.00 ($53.00)

levels we have seen in recent periods. Given the recent dislocation, many of the alts are seeing an

oppty.