Heads-up for report 20 May

Research evidence excerpt

Heads-up for report 20 May

Equity Research - 18 May 2026 16:03 CEST

Heads-up reportEmbracer Group

Heads-up for report 20 May BUY

Company will report Q4 on Wednesday, 20 May. Conference call at 9.00 IT

CET, link to webcast

EMBRAC.B-SE/EMBRACB SS

What to do with the share Share price (SEK) 15/5/2026 69.74

Target price 75.00We think the upside is more limited now after the strong run in the share

recently (+9% L1M, +27% L3M). However, the main triggers underpinning

our BUY case have not played out yet, which include a return to earnings MCap (SEKm) 15,960

growth, supported by a more exciting near-term pipeline, and buybacks. MCap (EURm) 1,455

We therefore think there could be more upside. But, for more upside in No. of shares (m) 219.9

the very near term, we think management needs to present its new capital

Free float (%) 62.0

allocation plan with the report (which should include buybacks) - a minor

Av. daily volume (k) 3,101miss or beat on the Q4 numbers should matter less than this. We argue

for a larger buyback programme, which could drive both positive EPS

revisions and reduced short interest ahead of the release of Metro 2039 Next event Q4 report 20 May 2026

this winter, which we think will drive positive estimate revisions too.

Analyst:

Fiscal Q4 numbers (calendar Q1) simon.jonsson@abgsc.se, +46 8 566 286 89

We forecast SEK 3,584m sales and SEK 244m adj. EBIT, 6% and 9%

below MFN consensus, respectively. That said, Q4 will be a smaller

quarter, and is part of a transitional period until Q2-Q4 next fiscal

year where we see strong earnings growth and where we are above

consensus. Key for the Q4 numbers will be in-line delivery, and strong

cash conversion (should be ~100% FCF/adj. EBIT conversion), supporting

a net cash position of ~SEK 3.0bn.

ABGSC vs. consensus