VG: Capturing Higher Rates

Research evidence excerpt

VG: Capturing Higher Rates

es a weighted average Prev. 2,291.0E 1,940.1E 1,325.3E 1,674.4E

liquefaction fee of $9.50-10.50/MMBtu for remaining unsold cargoes, All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

and for every $1/MMBtu change to impact Adj. EBITDA by $300-350MM Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

(previously $575-625MM impact).

Middle East conflict dampening supply near and longer term: In the near-

term the Iran conflict has taken ~20% of global LNG supply off the market.

At Ras Laffan, missile strikes have damaged two liquefaction trains with

total capacity of 12.8mtpa (~3-4% of global supply) that may take 3-5 years

to repair and supply chain challenges could delay new Middle Eastern

capacity expansions, which could keep global LNG prices at elevated levels

especially as the EU looks to refill storage.

Project and contracting updates: VG still targets Plaquemines Phase 1

COD in 4Q26 and Phase II COD in mid-2027. Depending on permitting,

VG could FID bolt on expansions at each of its two sites in 1Q27 and

2Q27, respectively, with first LNG ~18-20 months post FID. We believe the

expansions to be highly accretive given speed to first LNG. VG announced

a new 0.85mtpa 5-year agreement with TotalEnergies and a 0.2 MTPA

increase to 1.7 MTPA of its 5-year agreement with Vitol. While shorter, the

medium term contracts are at twice the rates of the long-term contracts.

Updating estimates: We now forecast 2026/2027 Adj. EBITDA of

$8,523MM/$7,317MM (was $8,729MM/$7,231MM), as we update for 1Q

results and updated guidance including incremental contracted volumes.

Disseminated: May 12, 2026 22:56EDT; Produced: May 12, 2026 22:56EDT

For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see page 6