ALKS: Lumryz IH Win Helps Build On The Developing Sleep Franchise

Research evidence excerpt

ALKS: Lumryz IH Win Helps Build On The Developing Sleep Franchise

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of this class), and in addition to the hit on ESS, key secondaries of PGI-C

and IHSS were also significant. While exact magnitudes were not disclosed,

we see little regulatory risk given the data and design, and mgmt. noted

they plan to file an sNDA by end-'26. Safety wise, the AEs were in line

with the drug's known profile, with no new safety signals, confirming that

Lumryz is a safe and convenient option for IH treatment. Overall, this data

continues to support Lumryz's potential favorable position on the market

compared to existing treatments, given its convenience (and any small

differences in efficacy tend not to be meaningful drivers of prescribing

patterns according to our KOLs). Rather, recall our KOLs have suggested that

dosing convenience (and payer dynamics) can be a deciding factor for many

patients given that the compliance in the sleep space is already low. Lastly,

we think expansion into IH, enabling Lumryz sales across a broader slide

of the hypersomnia space can help continue to lay the groundwork for any

future orexin launch.

Updating our model to reflect a high likelihood of approval. Based on

today's news, we are updating our model to a 90% PoS, and continue

to model Lumryz entering the IH market in '28, given the marketing

restrictions from the agreement with JAZZ; we would not expect downside

for JAZZ on the news given this was largely a known and expected

competitive concern. While generic oxybate impact and payer pressures

remain an important dynamic to watch, we estimate a contribution of ~

$300M in peak sales for Lumryz in IH, with total sales estimated at ~$850M.