TRIG: Key CME takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

TRIG: Key CME takeaways

The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

TRIG invests in and operates renewable energy assets acrossThe Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited

several technologies and geographies. A wide and diversified

130 125 Weeks 20DEC23 - 11MAY26 mandate provides scope to invest where risk-adjusted returns

120 are most attractive, and a diversified portfolio should, in

100 theory, reduce idiosyncratic risk to local power price volatility,

90 legislative risk and variability in asset generation.

TARGETTARGET 85.0085.00

70 CURRENTCURRENT 70.0070.00 Revenue is derived through a combination of ROCs

50 (Renewable Obligation Certificates), PPAs (Power Purchasing

40 Agreements), FiTs (Feed-in Tariffs) and merchant revenue

100m exposure while the portfolio targets modest capital growth

50m through its development and construction exposure, which is

2024 2025 2026

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M limited to 25% of NAV.

TRIG LN Rel. FT ALL SHARE INDEX MA 40 weeks

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target We have an Outperform recommendation and view the

recent removal of TRIG's premium valuation to solar peers asValuation

unjustified. Its debt profile is fully amortising and low costOur price target of 85p/sh is based on individual DCFs for each

while its differentiated cash flow profile is more robust to bothof the assets within the TRIG portfolio, assuming a remaining

power price movements and the 'ROC cliff' than peers.useful operating life aligned to TRIG provided information, and

risk-adjusted, post-tax nominal WACC of 6.2%. We apply a 15% Risks to rating and price targetdiscount to our FY26E NAV, which reflects both a challenging 1.