European consumer staples

Research evidence excerpt

European consumer staples

A mixed record

Over recent quarters, our ability to predict share prices on the day of results has been decidedly

mixed. Sometimes we are hopelessly unable to relate companies' performances to their share

prices; other times, we seem to have the knack. Thankfully, Q1 2026 has been one of the latter.

Whenever we publish a Quick Take note in response to a company's results, we are obliged to

incorporate a sentiment indicator - positive, neutral or negative - depending on how we think

the results will be received. Here's how it has played out this quarter.

Exhibit 2 - We have got more right than wrong this quarter

Results date Sentiment

Pernod Ricard 16-Apr Neutral

Beiersdorf 21-Apr Negative

Danone 22-Apr Neutral

Reckitt 22-Apr Negative

L'Oréal 23-Apr Positive

Heineken 23-Apr Neutral

Nestlé 23-Apr Positive

Carlsberg 29-Apr Positive

Haleon 29-Apr Negative

Unilever 30-Apr Neutral

ABI 05-May Positive

Diageo 06-May Positive

Campari 06-May Negative

Henkel 07-May Positive

Source: RBC Capital Markets

Before we get excessively self-congratulatory, we should point out that there haven't been too

many moving parts to consider.

• Quarterly results for the majority of companies that we cover only encompass sales;

• Only Pernod Ricard and Campari changed their guidance, both quantifying sales guidance for

the first time; and

• Our approach has not been terribly sophisticated; we rated companies that beat expectations

for organic sales and/or volume growth 'Positive', and those that missed 'Negative'.

Exhibit 3 - Our approach has not been unduly sophisticated

Organic volume growth Organic revenue growth

1Q 2026 (calendar) Reported: % Beat/(miss): bps Reported: % Beat/(miss): bps

Campari 2.9 -195

Beiersdorf -4.6 -150

Reckitt -2.0 -130 0.6 -100