CAREL INDUSTRIES (+) : Strong Q1, solid Q2 guidance - is M&A the next catalyst?

Research evidence excerpt

CAREL INDUSTRIES (+) : Strong Q1, solid Q2 guidance - is M&A the next catalyst?

EQUITIES

CAPITAL GOODS

OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE EPS 26e EPS 27eCAREL INDUSTRIES PRICE* EUR27.2  TARGET PRICE EUR31 (UPSIDE 14%)  11%  2%  2%

Strong Q1, solid Q2 guidance – is M&A the next catalyst?

Strong Q1 26 and sustained guidance for Q214 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report Carel reported very strong Q1 26 results, with 19.7% organic growth (+15.9% reported) to

Production time: 17:35* (London time) EUR170.9m (higher than the upper end of the guided range of EUR170m) and EBITDA margin of

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities 21.5% (vs 18.1% in Q1 25) with Kiona close to a 30% margin. The HVAC channel continued

Michele Baldelli, CFA growing strongly at +23% while refrigeration showed 11% yoy organic growth (in US +40%). EMEA

BNP Paribas SA underperformed with 9% organic growth, while APAC grew by 30% and NA delivered >+50%(+39) 02 8963 1744

michele.baldelli@bnpparibas.com organic growth (2x for DCs sales). Net cash position reached EUR24.3m (vs EUR18.4m in FY25).

The guidance for Q2 2026 points to a sales range of EUR180m-190m, which implies QoQ growth

of 7%/12% and YoY growth of 13%/20%.

Conf call feedback: Turkey hit Europe perf, capacity expansion ongoing, strong DC growth

Component shortages are not seen. Inventory on memory has been prudently increased. Turkish

projects hit growth in Europe as they were delayed, while in core Europe business is growing well.

Additional capacity in the US is expected soon, land is available locally to accommodate the

expansion of existing facilities and this may happen quickly. Capex/sales should stay at 5% as new

capacity will be established in Europe as well. Management seemed optimistic on margins even

though some cost headwinds are present.