US ONLINE TRAVEL : Fly-by Bytes | April: BKNG, ABNB, EXPE In-Line, Impact from Middle East and the World Cup in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

US ONLINE TRAVEL : Fly-by Bytes | April: BKNG, ABNB, EXPE In-Line, Impact from Middle East and the World Cup in Focus

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US ONLINE TRAVEL

Fly-by Bytes | April: BKNG, ABNB, EXPE In-Line, Impact

from Middle East and the World Cup in Focus

QTD data suggests BKNG, ABNB, and EXPE are trending in-line with 2Q26 consensus expectations.14 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report For more third-party, macro, & industry data see our report.

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Research Analysts & Publishing Entities Booking (Outperform, $240 TP) – TRENDING IN-LINE

Nick Jones In April, BKNG had 126.3M MAUs. Our regression predicts $48B GBV in the quarter vs consensus

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 of $49.6B. Given the ~3% standard error and rising GBV/MAU in 2025, we view Booking as tracking

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nick.2.jones@us.bnpparibas.com in-line with consensus.

Expedia (Neutral, $260 TP) – TRENDING IN-LINE

Our 2Q regression has a slightly weaker fit, however, our analysis suggests EXPE is tracking in-

line with cons 2Q26 GBV growth of 8% y/y.

Airbnb (Neutral, $150 TP) – TRENDING IN-LINE

In April, ABNB had 108.9M MAUs. Our regression predicts $26.7B GBV in the quarter vs consensus

of $26.4B. Given the ~3% standard error, we view Airbnb as tracking in-line with consensus.

Travel related macro trends broadly stable but the conflict in the Middle East may continue

to weigh on growth

Consumer intention to travel, Passenger travel number and revenue miles all suggest stable

conditions for the travel industry for now. RevPAR continues to remain strong, driven by resilient

ADRs. Further, stable macro trends are evident in the growth of online travel MAUs and web site

visits. However, the Iran conflict is likely to weigh on consumer confidence and the travel industry in