ALLEGRO (=) : Q1 results: off the call

Research evidence excerpt

ALLEGRO (=) : Q1 results: off the call

Refinitiv

Key takeaways from the call

– Current trading: for Q2 to date, Polish operations have seen high-single-digit GMV growth year-on-year, driven by the

timing of Easter and the Smart! Week. Year-to-date Polish GMV growth is around the midpoint of the FY26 guidance of

+9% to +11% year-on-year. In Allegro International, the marketplaces delivered over +70% GMV growth on a quarter-to-

date basis, which is higher than the +67.5% in Q1. On a consolidated basis, Group GMV has been growing by nearly +10%

year-on-year. We forecast Group GMV growth of +9.9% for the whole of Q2.

– FY26 guidance: Group guidance for GMV growth of +10% to +12% (Bloomberg consensus +10.5%), revenue growth of

+12% to +15% (Bloomberg consensus +13.2%) and adjusted EBITDA growth of +9% to +13% (Bloomberg consensus

+11.4%), remains unchanged today. However, the revised International outlook adds PLN 100m of GMV, which translates

to a c.5% faster growth, and PLN 30m to the commission-based revenue from the marketplaces, also a +5% improvement

in revenue growth. It does not expect year-on-year Polish EBITDA growth to be as strong in the subsequent quarters

because management has decided not to put up take rates, meaning that it will need to absorb cost increases, including

operating expenses and salaries over the year. It is also mindful of how the conflict in the Middle East could weigh on

consumer discretionary spending and that the FX tailwind that it is currently benefitting from could reverse.

– Category expansion: Allegro is expanding its target addressable market by launching services in healthcare in Q1 and

travel in Q2, with more categories likely to follow. Both initiatives operate on a high-take-rate, third-party marketplace model,