FIDELITY NATIONAL INF SVC (-) : AI threat adding to our concerns; FY 26 guidance looks at risk

Research evidence excerpt

FIDELITY NATIONAL INF SVC (-) : AI threat adding to our concerns; FY 26 guidance looks at risk

– 10% of Transaction processing and services: a portion of this revenue line across

Banking Solutions and Capital Market Solutions, which we estimate at 10%, is made up

of BPO services and software maintenance where a software license and maintenance

constitute a single performance obligation.

– 1/3 of software maintenance: software maintenance contracts typically include 1)

30-40% of technical support services including helpdesk and on-site assistance and 2)

60-70% of software updates and upgrades. The first element is human intensive and

could suffer from AI deflation as a result.

– Other recurring revenue is made up of FIS’s employees working at the client’s

premises under the client’s direction.

– Professional services are comprised of implementation, conversion and

programming services that can typically benefit from AI productivity gains passed on to

the end customer.

– 15% of Issuer Solutions: We recall from our conversation with Global Payments

that about 35% of Issuer Solutions revenue is derived from managed services, card

production, consulting and data analytics. Part of this 35% (perhaps 10-20% related to

managed services, consulting and data analytics) could be at risk from AI-related

deflation.

Figure 1: We estimate 21% of FIS’s proforma revenue could suffer from some AI

deflation

FIS proforma revenue split between services and software, hardware and other revenue (2025)

Transaction

processing & Software services (10%) maintenance (1/3) 5% 3%

Other recurring

3%

Professionnal

services

7%

Issuer Solutions

(15%)

Software, hardware

and other revenue

79%

Source: FIS disclosures, BNP Paribas Equity Research estimates

c.100bps of revenue shaved off over time?