Maintaining the High Ground—Maintenance Studies Show Path to Incretin Durability

Research evidence excerpt

Maintaining the High Ground—Maintenance Studies Show Path to Incretin Durability

reatment.

Revenue $65,179 $84,955 $97,914

SURMOUNT-MAINTAIN results highlight the ability of tirzepatide to be used at

lower doses to maintain weight loss long term. In conjunction with Lilly's full Consensus Estimates

presentation of ATTAIN-MAINTAIN results, management also released SURMOUNT- 2025A 2026E 2027E

MAINTAIN results testing patient weight maintenance following 60 weeks of Zepbound EPS $36.33 $44.20

treatment and maintained maximum tolerated dose or dose reductions to 5mg. Valuation

Following 52 weeks of maintenance treatment, maintained Zepbound dosing resulted

2025A 2026E 2027E

in -0.8kg of additional weight loss, while reductions to 5mg dosing led to only a 5.6kg

P/E 40.9x 27.3x 21.6xweight regain (6.2% increase relative to average body weight at week 60). SURMOUNT-

MAINTAIN results clearly demonstrate an ability to transition Zepbound patients to QTR. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

maintenance dosing either through dose reduction or dose maintenance, supporting 2025A $3.34 $6.31 $7.02 $7.54

longer durability use of the product in the future. 2026E $8.55 $8.73 $1.91 $9.79

Efficacy has been the leading driver of oral GLP-1 uptake, but convenience is

likely to dominate in the maintenance setting. While Foundayo scripts have been

trending upward since launch in April, scripts have lagged vs. that of the Wegovy Pill

and Street expectations (most recent script tracker note here). Novo's first mover

advantage in the oral GLP-1 anti-obesity treatment space, and injectable-like efficacy

associated with the Wegovy Pill, have supported more accelerated uptake for the

product. However, this is likely to change in the maintenance setting as weight loss