North American Precious Metals Drive Q1/26 Beat

Research evidence excerpt

North American Precious Metals Drive Q1/26 Beat

$1,114 $1,823 $2,696↑ $3,130↑

GEO sales ahead of expectations. GEO sales of 136kGEO beat our 131kGEO and

EPS $3.25 $5.56 $9.05↑ $10.71↑

consensus of 132kGEO. The beat was mostly driven by gold and silver with precious

metal GEO sales of 118kGEO ahead of our estimate of 113kGEO (in-line with consensus CFPS $4.29 $7.72 $11.20↑ $13.23↑

of 117kGEO). The biggest drivers of the beat relative to our estimates included Nevada Total GEO (koz) 463.3 519.1 560.9↑ 610.5↑

Gold Mines (largely South Arturo and Goldstrike but also Gold Quarry). Revenue Valuation

associated with Hemlo and Musselwhite beat our expectations as well. 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

GEO sales guidance unchanged; moderate Panama sales to begin contributing in P/E NM NM 26.2x 22.1x

Q3/26 with more to come in 2027. FNV reaffirmed its 2026 GEO sales guidance of 510–

P/CFPS 51.9x 55.0x 21.1x 17.9x

570kGEO, excluding Cobre Panama. Stockpile processing in Panama should generate

EV/EBITDA 45.0x 47.2x 18.5x 15.9xmoderate deliveries starting in Q3/26 with the bulk of incremental GEO contributions

expected in 2027. At its 2026 Board Meeting today prior Chair David Harquail became QTR. Adj EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Chair Emeritus while Tom Albanese (previous roles as CEO at Rio Tinto and Vedanta) 2024A $0.76 $0.75 $0.80 $0.95

was appointed as independent non-executive Chair of FNV. 2025A $1.06 $1.23 $1.42 $1.84

Maintain C$410 target, Outperform rating. Our C$410 target price is based on 2.7x 2026E $2.38a $2.17 $2.19 $2.31

P/NAV (BMO metal prices and 5% discount rate) and 27.0x P/CF (NTM+1) multiples,

2027E $2.38 $2.55 $2.93 $2.86

weighted 50/50%.

Key Changes

Estimates Q2 / 26E 2026E 2027E

Revenue $670 $2,696 $3,130

Previous $618 $2,497 $2,905

EPS $2.17 $9.05 $10.71 Our Thesis