MTZ Analyst Day: Generational Growth Sets a 2028 Floor; Consensus Has Room to Move Higher

Research evidence excerpt

MTZ Analyst Day: Generational Growth Sets a 2028 Floor; Consensus Has Room to Move Higher

Power Technology

MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)

EQUITY RESEARCH Quick Take

May 12, 2026

MTZ Analyst Day: Generational Growth Sets a 2028 Price: $421.37

Price Target: $545.00 Floor; Consensus Has Room to Move Higher

Rating: Overweight Takeaways

Key Statistics: MTZ’s Analyst Day was most significant for the 2028 financial framework,

Symbol NYSE: MTZ which, in our view, should reset the Street’s baseline higher and reduce

52-Week Range 145.46 - 441.43 dispersion in forward estimates. Management introduced an organic 2028 Market Cap 33,296.1

ADV (3 mo) 958,833 target of ~$22B in revenue (3-year CAGR ~15%), ~$2.2B in adjusted EBITDA

Shares Out (M) 79.0 (~25%), ~$15.0 in adjusted EPS (~30%), ~$3B in cumulative FCF (55%-60%

conversion), and 16%+ ROIC, excluding M&A. Our FY28E estimates are

Research Analysts: broadly aligned with this framework.

Manish A. Somaiya

212-915-1051 Management described the current industry environment as a generational

Manish.Somaiya@Cantor.com infrastructure cycle, supported by AI-driven power demand, grid

modernization, broadband/fiber, data centers, the energy transition,

One-Year Price History pipeline infrastructure, gas-fired generation, water, transportation, and

500 civil/industrial work. MTZ framed its 2026 addressable market at roughly

400 350 $685B, growing to more than $1T annually by 2030, with roughly $4.6T

300 250 of cumulative opportunity through 2030. That aligns with our prior E&C

150 research, which argued that the sector has shifted from demand formation

05/25 08/25 11/25 02/26 05/26 to backlog conversion.

MTZ Created by BlueMatrix

ROIC was a key part of the event and should help shift the investment

discussion from backlog growth to value creation.