Takeaways From Our Call with Shadow Jumpers

Research evidence excerpt

Takeaways From Our Call with Shadow Jumpers

May 12, 2026

Valuation

We use a probability-adjusted DCF analysis to value IRON shares. We model cash flows out

to 2035. We assume a discount rate of 16% and no terminal value. The total equity value

is ~$4.8B, based on our analysis. Our PT calculation includes estimated shares outstanding

as of end-1Q27.

Risks

Disc Medicine, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, and investment is

subject to risk. These risks include, but are not limited to:

Clinical trial risk: Disc Medicine’s lead candidate, bitopertin, is in Phase 3 trials for

erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and X-linked protoporphyria (XLP). Delays in patient

recruitment or enrollment could delay the trials, which could then affect the timing of

our sales estimates. Bitopertin's clinical success is dependent on the drug meeting trial

endpoints and achieving adequate safety and efficacy profiles. Failure to achieve clinical

requirements could have a significant impact on our sales estimates.

Regulatory risk: As with any company whose main business is drug development, Disc

Medicine is subject to the stringent regulatory requirements of the FDA and other

international regulatory agencies to have its new drugs and new indications for them,

approved. Promotion of its drug products is also stringently regulated by the FDA and

related agencies throughout the world. The FDA may deny approval or require additional

studies for review if it does not believe the submission satisfactorily addresses the safety,

efficacy, and manufacturability of a drug candidate. The FDA laws and regulations around

compounding pharmaceuticals and repackaging could also change.

Commercial/Competitive risk: Disc Medicine’s lead candidate, bitopertin, is under