RIGL Expands Into Breast Cancer With Licensing of VEPPANU

Research evidence excerpt

RIGL Expands Into Breast Cancer With Licensing of VEPPANU

May 12, 2026

Valuation

We use a probability-adjusted DCF analysis to value RIGL shares. We model cash flows out

to 2035E. We assume a discount rate of 12% and do not assign a terminal value. The NPV of

free cash flow is ~$446M, based on our calculations. We add a $100M placeholder for the

earlier-stage pipeline. Together, this leads us to a total NPV of ~$546M. When accounting

for cash (~$10/share), this leads us to our 12-month price target of $38/share. We model

shares outstanding and cash for the period ending in 1Q27E.

Risks

Rigel is a commercial-stage company, and investment is subject to risk. These risks include,

but are not limited to:

Clinical trial risk: Rigel recently missed the primary endpoint for the pivotal trial of

fostamatinib for warm AIHA. Clinical development is a risky enterprise that could result

in a negative outcome. Failure to demonstrate statistical and clinical significance or a

compelling drug efficacy/safety profile could lead to rejection of regulatory approval in

this indication.

Regulatory risk: As with any company the main business of which is drug development,

Rigel is subject to the very stringent regulatory requirements of the FDA and international

regulatory agencies to have its new drugs and new indications for them approved.

Promotion of its approved drug products is also stringently regulated by the FDA and

related agencies throughout the world. The FDA may deny approval or require additional

studies for review if it does not believe the submission satisfactorily addresses the safety,

efficacy, and manufacturability of a drug candidate.

Commercial/Competitive risk: There are a number of therapies used for the treatment

of ITP, fostamatinib’s lead indication.