VG: Q1 Beat—2026 Guidance Increase Is Above Street—Positive Reaction

Research evidence excerpt

VG: Q1 Beat—2026 Guidance Increase Is Above Street—Positive Reaction

Equity Research

Flash Comment — May 12, 2026

Midstream Energy

Venture Global, Inc.

Q1 Beat—2026 Guidance Increase Is Above Street—Positive Equal Weight

Reaction Price Target: $14.00

Ticker VG

Our Call Upside/(Downside) to Target 20.5%

Q1 beat & increased 2026 guidance is above consensus reflecting wider spreads and add'l Price (05/11/2026) $11.62

cargoes. We see further pot'l upside from open capacity in 2026 (~325 TBtu). The new/ 52 Week Range $5.72 - 19.50

expanded mid-term deals are also positive. Expect a positive stock reaction. Market Cap (MM) $28,550

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

Initial Thoughts NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

Q1 Beat On Lower Opex. Adjusted EBITDA of $1,372MM was above consensus of Michael Blum

$1,274MM and our estimate of $1,225MM. As disclosed on 4/9/26, VG exported 130 Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Michael.J.Blum@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5037

cargos at a blended fee of $3.82/MMBtu, below our forecast of 132 cargos at $3.57/

MMBtu (see here). Total LNG volumes sold of 480.8 TBtu were slightly below our forecast Praneeth Satish

of 487.2 TBtu. The slightly lower volumes were offset by lower total cash opex (i.e., O&M, Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Praneeth.Satish@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8056

G&A & development expense) of $398MM compared to our forecast of $526MM.

Ned Baramov, CFA

Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

2026 EBITDA Guidance Increase Is Above Consensus. VG increased 2026 adj. EBITDA Ned.Baramov@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8021

to $8.2-8.5B (midpoint of $8.35B) from $5.20-5.80B (midpoint of $5.50B), above Eric Shiu

consensus of $7.83B but below our forecast of $8.5B.