Onterris, Inc.: 1Q26 earnings review & model update

Research evidence excerpt

Onterris, Inc.: 1Q26 earnings review & model update

Equity Research

North America Environmental Services

15 May 2026

Onterris, Inc.

1Q26 earnings review & model

update

ONT’s 1Q26 results highlighted earnings variability, driven by ONT OVERWEIGHT

lower ER activity and timing, though management reiterated Unchanged

North America

FY26 guidance and confidence in demand. Environmental Services POSITIVE

Unchanged

Price Target USD 19.00

1Q26 results offered a reminder of the lumpiness inherent in ONT's (formerly MEG) business, lowered -53% from USD 40.00

with a more severe than expected y/y decline in 1Q26 revenue and adj. EBITDA. However, Price (14-May-26) USD 15.19

management remains optimistic on durable and growing demand trends for ONT's services Potential Upside/Downside +25.1%

across its key end markets and affirmed FY2026 guidance. We maintain our OW rating with Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

shares trading at ~7x NTM EV/EBITDA, inexpensive relative to our expected ~10% p.a. adj.

EBITDA growth 2026-28E, in our view. However, we think the ~$60-70mn implied revenue Market Cap (USD mn) 548

pushout to 2H26 may cause investors to be more cautious in the near term, with the expected Shares Outstanding (mn) 36.14

2H catch-up potentially facing resource/labor constraints and pushing some anticipated 2H Free Float (%) 91.16

revenue into 2027. 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.4

Dividend Yield (%) N/A1Q26 impacted by lower ER activity and severe weather: The 1Q26 ~5% y/y revenue decline

Return on Equity TTM (%) 1.04was primarily due to lower ER activity, severe winter weather disruption, and project timing.

Current BVPS (USD) 12.05Management emphasized no change in underlying demand, with 1Q more reflective of normal

Source: Bloomberg