U.S. CHPC & Beverages: Commodity Cost Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. CHPC & Beverages: Commodity Cost Tracker

ent crude oil is today it

expects to see a similar hit to margins as it saw with tariffs. Finally, at F2Q26 earnings in early-

May, Energizer did not give updates as to its input cost expectations. Recall, as of F1Q26

earnings in early-February, Energizer discussed inflation in zinc, lithium, silver, and R-134a. ENR

is ~90% fixed on zinc in FY26, though into '27 the impact could be more material though

manageable (<100bps on a run rate basis as of early-February).

Turning to the calendar-year companies, at 1Q earnings Kimberly-Clark noted an expected

$50mm headwind in 2Q, driven by war-related inflation but also a fire in a California distribution

center. While not included in official guidance, it noted that should oil average ~$100/bbl over

the course of 2H, the incremental cost pressure would be in the $150-$170mm range. K-C also

noted it is 80% covered on costs for 2026. On Colgate-Palmolive's 1Q26 earnings call earlier

this month, the company mentioned that, with oil at a price of $110 for the balance of the year,

this works out to an incremental $300 million headwind including logistics. At 1Q26 earnings,

Church & Dwight noted expectations for a $25-$30mm headwind from the conflict in the

Middle East, with this estimate assuming oil persists at $100/bbl through the year. Note, CHD

entered 2026 at ~60% hedged. On Reynolds call in early-May, the company noted that it expects

$200mm in incremental inflation on an annualized basis, evenly split between aluminum,

polyethylene, and other resins. Note, we understand that this $200mm figure does not yet

reflect April settlements for resins, and thus is subject to change. Newell anticipates an

incremental $50mm in commodity-driven inflation, driven by resin and freight.