European Transportation: Global Freight Data Book

Research evidence excerpt

European Transportation: Global Freight Data Book

Barclays | European Transportation

Container global volumes -3% YoY in March (vs. +5%/+12% in Jan/Feb). CTS estimates c5%

of volume impact from ME in March + CNY mismatch YoY. 1Q total volumes up 4.4%, or 6%

if adjusted for a weaker March. CTS Far East to NA volumes -8% YoY vs Jan/Feb at -8%/+12%.

Asia to RoW remains strong, with Asia to Europe up +2% YoY in March after spiking at +49% YoY

in Feb, and +23% vs. 2022 in Mar. Far East to Latam +11% in Mar YoY (vs. Jan/Feb +42%/11%).

Absolute volumes in March were up 6% MoM vs. February but still lower than historical

seasonality of +20% on late CNY affecting March. The global CTS price index was up 7% MoM in

March, higher than -1% historical seasonality, but not fully reflecting the oil price spike yet. April

spot rates weaker with WCFI/SCFI -3%/+5% MoM vs historical seasonality of flat/+8%, therefore

easing down from higher March rates primarily driven by fuel prices on a late peak season. Both

WCI/SCFI recovering in May showing signs of peak season. The idling rate is at 0.8% in March, up

MoM, but still below highs of 2.3% in March and 3.1% in February 2023. The container vessel

orderbook-to-fleet ratio is up, at 36.5% in March. Sea Intelligence showed schedule reliability up

MoM at 62.2% in March vs 59.0% in February.

German Toll mileage index showing 2Q26 preliminary data flattish QoQ, with a slight decline

of -1% YoY and -1% as well MoM in April.

Preliminary Eurostat data reflects stronger yoy volume growth in March vs. February

across most of Europe. Stronger YoY volume growth sequentially in Germany, Spain and

Portugal while it was weaker sequentially in Belgium and in the UK.

2Q26 capacity on European short-haul +4.9% YoY, N Atlantic +1.1%. 2Q26 shows European