European Aviation Daily: Icarus – 15 May 2026

Research evidence excerpt

European Aviation Daily: Icarus – 15 May 2026

xisting base case traffic estimates, we add +1ppt to airport

passenger growth in the September quarter and +2ppts in the December quarter, followed by

+1ppt in the March and June 2027 quarters before growth normalises. In the year-end reopening

scenario, we make the reverse adjustment, cutting the September quarter traffic evolution by

-1ppt, the December quarter by -2ppts and the March/June 2027 quarters by -1ppt, reflecting

lingering caution even after the Strait reopens. We also flex retail spend per passenger growth

by +/-2% YoY in 2H26 and +/-1% YoY in 1H27, before fading the effect through 2H27/1H28. We

also adapt the traffic forecasts for external assets that are particularly sensitive to the Iran

conflict: ADP's TAV, GMR and Amman.

The EBITDA sensitivity is modest: ADP shows the widest impact range, in our view, given its

low base case EBITDA margin, the significance of retail to its business and its Middle East

exposure in its external assets. On the other hand AENA is the less sensitive, given its high base

case EBITDA margin and lack of external asset relevance. In FY26, our reopening-now scenario

we lift EBITDA by +3.4% for ADP, +1.6% for AENA, +1.5% for Athens, +1.4% for Fraport and +1.0%

for Zurich versus our base case. In the year-end reopening scenario, EBITDA falls by -3.4% for

ADP, -1.5% for AENA, -1.5% for Athens, -1.4% for Fraport and -1.0% for Zurich. The shape is

intuitive: we believe ADP has the most earnings leverage because of Paris, retail mix and

external exposure; AENA has a high EBITDA margin limited Middle East vulnerability in its

external assets. In our view, Athens has the highest core Middle East seat exposure but has

regulatory protection on aeronautical returns.