European Airlines: Strait scenarios — significant gearing to the timing of reopening

Research evidence excerpt

European Airlines: Strait scenarios — significant gearing to the timing of reopening

Equity Research

European Transportation

15 May 2026

European Airlines

Strait scenarios — significant

gearing to the timing of reopening

Profit scenarios on different timing of SoH reopening show European Transportation

significant FY26 and FY27 EBIT swings. For a near-term NEUTRAL

reopening, holiday stocks attractive investment European Transportation

Andrew Lobbenberg

opportunities. Finnair would underperform. Given extended +44 (0)20 3555 0639

closure of the Strait, high-margin IAG and Ryanair relative andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

winners. Rahul Singh

+91 (0)22 6175 2529

Our ratings are weighted to the positive: Despite the significant challenges facing the rahul.xb.singh@barclays.com

industry, our ratings are predominantly constructive. Over the years the investors who have Barclays, UK

made the most successful investments in airlines are those that acquired positions during Emilie Fung

periods of significant industry distress. Obviously, the key is how to finesse timing, and that is +44 (0)20 3555 2335

undoubtedly very difficult. In this context, clear visibility into political thinking in Tehran and emilie.fung@barclays.com

Washington is of greater use than knowledge of the sector. Among our positive ratings, we see Barclays, UK

IAG and Ryanair placed to maintain profitability in most potential scenarios and to take strategic Marco Limite

advantage of rivals' problems. We see the holiday-focused companies, easyJet, Jet2 and Tui, +39 (0)2 6372 2582

placed to benefit from a resurgence in leisure travel demand once there is de-escalation. Our marco.limite@barclays.com