Brenntag: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

Brenntag: Model update

Equity Research

European Chemicals & Ingredients

15 May 2026

Brenntag

Model update

Our FY estimates are largely unchanged after the Q1 beat, as

we had already upgraded for a strong Q2 and a more cautious

H2. Management echoed this view on the call. Next catalyst is BNRGn.DE/BNR GY EQUAL WEIGHT Unchanged

the CMD in Nov; relative upside still looks better in IMCD/ European Chemicals & NEGATIVE

Azelis given valuation. Ingredients Unchanged

Price Target EUR 57.00

Unchanged

Estimates broadly unchanged post Q1; earlier upgrades already reflected: Our estimates

remain largely unchanged versus pre-Q1, with reported Q1 EBITDA coming in c.1% ahead of our Price (13-May-26) EUR 60.60

forecasts. Importantly, we had already upgraded our numbers ahead of the print to reflect a Potential Upside/Downside -5.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

stronger-than-expected Q2 trajectory, offset by a slightly more cautious stance on H2. The Q1

outcome largely validates this positioning: performance was skewed by a weak January–

February and a sharp inflection in March, with pricing actions and supply tightness only Market Cap (EUR mn) 8749

contributing meaningfully late in the quarter. As such, the modest beat does not change our full- Shares Outstanding (mn) 144.39

year view, with upside in Q2 largely anticipated and H2 still the key swing factor. Our 2026E Free Float (%) 73.74

EBITDA estimate of €1,337mn is +3% ahead of pre-Q1 Vara consensus. 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.3

Dividend Yield (%) 3.13

Management corroborates strong Q2 momentum, highlights uncertainty for Return on Equity TTM (%) 4.96

H2: Management commentary on the call strongly supports our thesis of a solid Q2 backdrop, Current BVPS (EUR) 31.04