Alstom: Accounts confirm that more issues likely ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Alstom: Accounts confirm that more issues likely ahead

Equity Research

European Capital Goods

15 May 2026

Alstom

Accounts confirm that more issues

likely ahead

FY26 accounts highlight depth of the problem ALO faces: ALSO.PA/ALO FP UNDERWEIGHT

persistent disconnect between earnings & underlying CF, the Unchanged

extent of NWC swing that was required to keep financials European Capital Goods UnchangedNEUTRAL

within Moody's framework. We see broader execution related Price Target EUR 10.00

consequences & B/S that needs strengthening. Cutting Unchanged

estimates, UW. Price (14-May-26) EUR 17.77 Potential Upside/Downside -43.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Full 2H26 disclosure provides further evidence of challenges, with no quick fix. We believe

Alstom faces relatively wide-spread execution challenges (which were accumulating for a Market Cap (EUR mn) 8210

prolonged period of time), which have no obvious quick fix and could require B/S strengthening Shares Outstanding (mn) 462.03

- Alstom: no easy fix for the business, B/S could be addressed with a rights issue. Full disclosure of Free Float (%) 82.44

FY26 accounting highlighted a clear disconnect between earnings and underlying cash 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.4

generation, and the extent of working capital move (likely share reversal in 1H27) that was Dividend Yield (%) N/A

required to meet the FY26 cash flow guidance. 6.1% adj EBIT margin for FY26 (that allowed Return on Equity TTM (%) 3.07

Moody's operating margin to stay just above the 5% threshold) could have potentially looked Current BVPS (EUR) 23.08

very different if not for one-time record contribution from non-consolidated Chinese JVs, Source: Bloomberg

relatively low net provisioning (despite called out issues) and further build in contract assets.