Australian Real Estate Sector Update "Mar-26Q data wrap: Fraying at the ..."

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Real Estate Sector Update "Mar-26Q data wrap: Fraying at the ..."

Global Research

14 May 2026ab

Australian Real Estate Sector Update Equities

AustraliaMar-26Q data wrap: Fraying at the edges

Real Estate

Cody Shield, CFA

Residential: Momentum slowing but SGP's land lease business booming Analyst

Master-Planned Communities (MPC): Enquiries and net sales softened sequentially q/q cody.shield@ubs.com

for both SGP/MGR in 3Q26, likely reflecting headwinds from a higher interest rate +61-2-9324 2903

backdrop. YTD settlements imply a 50% 4Q26 skew is required for both SGP/MGR to hit Solomon Zhang, CFA

the mid-point of their settlement guidance ranges for FY26 (SGP: 7,500 - 8,500, Analyst

MGR: 2,000 - 2,300). Land Lease Communities (LLC): SGP's LLC business (Halcyon) solomon.zhang@ubs.com

bucked the broader resi sales trends, with 3Q26 sales of 317 homes up 162% on pcp +61-2-9324 2007

and 10% q/q - annualised sales of >1,200 imply significant growth vs. the mid-point of Miriam Pritchard

SGP's FY26 settlement range (700 - 800 homes). Record sales were achieved despite Analyst

two quarters of declining enquiries (3Q26: 6.2k vs. 2Q26: 7.3k and 1Q26: 9.1k). Sales miriam.pritchard@ubs.com

rates declined sequentially for both MGR and LIC in 3Q26. +61-2-9324 2270

Aman Madhyastha

Commercial: Retail metrics still healthy while Industrial/Office mixed Associate Analyst

Retail: Operating metrics continued to improve in the Mar-26Q, with leasing spreads aman.madhyastha@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2000

and total MAT sales growth lifting q/q. GPT reported healthy visitation growth of +4.2%

y/y in Apr-26 and SCG's visitation growth was 3.1% YTD as of Apr-26 (unch. vs. Feb-26),

indicating minimal impact post Iran conflict and RBA rate hikes. VCX flagged that luxury